陶冬  系淡水泉（香港）总裁兼首席经济学家、中国首席经济学家论坛理事

ase="11px" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);border-color:initial;border-style:initial;border-width:0px;color:rgb(0, 0, 0);font-feature-settings:normal;font-kerning:auto;font-optical-sizing:auto;font-size:11px;font-stretch:normal;font-variant-alternates:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-position:normal;font-variation-settings:normal;letter-spacing:normal;line-height:normal;margin-bottom:0px;min-height:12px;text-align:left">
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ase="11px" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);border-color:initial;border-style:initial;border-width:0px;color:rgb(0, 0, 0);font-feature-settings:normal;font-kerning:auto;font-optical-sizing:auto;font-size:11px;font-stretch:normal;font-variant-alternates:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-position:normal;font-variation-settings:normal;letter-spacing:normal;line-height:normal;margin-bottom:0px;text-align:left">    德国大规模扩大军备开支和修建基础设施，欧洲股票表现不错，但德国国债就遭遇抛售，ase="14px" style="font-feature-settings:normal;font-kerning:auto;font-optical-sizing:auto;font-stretch:normal;font-variant-alternates:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-position:normal;font-variation-settings:normal;line-height:normal">10年期国债收益率几度冲破ase="14px" style="font-feature-settings:normal;font-kerning:auto;font-optical-sizing:auto;font-stretch:normal;font-variant-alternates:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-position:normal;font-variation-settings:normal;line-height:normal">2.9%。原油价格和大宗商品跟随走高，美元指数略有下降。避险意识之下，黄金一度突破ase="14px" style="font-feature-settings:normal;font-kerning:auto;font-optical-sizing:auto;font-stretch:normal;font-variant-alternates:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-position:normal;font-variation-settings:normal;line-height:normal">3000美元大关。比特币大跌后回升。

ase="11px" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);border-color:initial;border-style:initial;border-width:0px;color:rgb(0, 0, 0);font-feature-settings:normal;font-kerning:auto;font-optical-sizing:auto;font-size:11px;font-stretch:normal;font-variant-alternates:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-position:normal;font-variation-settings:normal;letter-spacing:normal;line-height:normal;margin-bottom:0px;min-height:12px;text-align:left">
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ase="11px" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);border-color:initial;border-style:initial;border-width:0px;color:rgb(0, 0, 0);font-feature-settings:normal;font-kerning:auto;font-optical-sizing:auto;font-size:11px;font-stretch:normal;font-variant-alternates:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-position:normal;font-variation-settings:normal;letter-spacing:normal;line-height:normal;margin-bottom:0px;text-align:left">    美国总统大选结果出来后，一位德高望重的美国基金经理说了一句话，令笔者印象深刻。ase="14px" style="font-feature-settings:normal;font-kerning:auto;font-optical-sizing:auto;font-stretch:normal;font-variant-alternates:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-position:normal;font-variation-settings:normal;line-height:normal">“好的特朗普，还是坏的特朗普，我们也不知道哪个会出现ase="14px" style="font-feature-settings:normal;font-kerning:auto;font-optical-sizing:auto;font-stretch:normal;font-variant-alternates:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-position:normal;font-variation-settings:normal;line-height:normal">“。市场坚信好的特朗普会出现，特朗普交易如火如荼，美股、美元、比特币一路飙升。然而今年以来，特朗普交易都涨不动了。美股、美元和比特币都跌到了ase="14px" style="font-feature-settings:normal;font-kerning:auto;font-optical-sizing:auto;font-stretch:normal;font-variant-alternates:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-position:normal;font-variation-settings:normal;line-height:normal">11月ase="14px" style="font-feature-settings:normal;font-kerning:auto;font-optical-sizing:auto;font-stretch:normal;font-variant-alternates:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-position:normal;font-variation-settings:normal;line-height:normal">5日选举前的水平，坏的特朗普显现了。

ase="11px" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);border-color:initial;border-style:initial;border-width:0px;color:rgb(0, 0, 0);font-feature-settings:normal;font-kerning:auto;font-optical-sizing:auto;font-size:11px;font-stretch:normal;font-variant-alternates:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-position:normal;font-variation-settings:normal;letter-spacing:normal;line-height:normal;margin-bottom:0px;min-height:12px;text-align:left">
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ase="11px" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);border-color:initial;border-style:initial;border-width:0px;color:rgb(0, 0, 0);font-feature-settings:normal;font-kerning:auto;font-optical-sizing:auto;font-size:11px;font-stretch:normal;font-variant-alternates:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-position:normal;font-variation-settings:normal;letter-spacing:normal;line-height:normal;margin-bottom:0px;text-align:left">    特朗普一上任，就四处出击。他的关税政策得罪了几乎所有大的贸易伙伴，并招致关税反击，物价压力估计很快会显现出来。他在削减政府开支和裁撤联邦政府员工上，作出了史无前例的大动作，直接影响到相当一批人的收入预期。尽管特朗普仍在自我吹嘘自己的政绩，特朗普衰退已经成为市场普遍关注的焦点话题。经济学人ase="14px" style="font-feature-settings:normal;font-kerning:auto;font-optical-sizing:auto;font-stretch:normal;font-variant-alternates:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-position:normal;font-variation-settings:normal;line-height:normal">杂志的封面是特朗普一手拿汽油桶、一手拿火种站在地球上。

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ase="11px" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);border-color:initial;border-style:initial;border-width:0px;color:rgb(0, 0, 0);font-feature-settings:normal;font-kerning:auto;font-optical-sizing:auto;font-size:11px;font-stretch:normal;font-variant-alternates:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-position:normal;font-variation-settings:normal;letter-spacing:normal;line-height:normal;margin-bottom:0px;text-align:left">    据美银美林策略师ase="14px" style="font-feature-settings:normal;font-kerning:auto;font-optical-sizing:auto;font-stretch:normal;font-variant-alternates:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-position:normal;font-variation-settings:normal;line-height:normal">Hartnett统计，自从ase="14px" style="font-feature-settings:normal;font-kerning:auto;font-optical-sizing:auto;font-stretch:normal;font-variant-alternates:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-position:normal;font-variation-settings:normal;line-height:normal">1965年，美股遭遇过ase="14px" style="font-feature-settings:normal;font-kerning:auto;font-optical-sizing:auto;font-stretch:normal;font-variant-alternates:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-position:normal;font-variation-settings:normal;line-height:normal">23个非衰退的跌市，平均跌幅ase="14px" style="font-feature-settings:normal;font-kerning:auto;font-optical-sizing:auto;font-stretch:normal;font-variant-alternates:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-position:normal;font-variation-settings:normal;line-height:normal">16%；八次衰退带来的股市抛售，平均下跌ase="14px" style="font-feature-settings:normal;font-kerning:auto;font-optical-sizing:auto;font-stretch:normal;font-variant-alternates:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-position:normal;font-variation-settings:normal;line-height:normal">36%。问题是，这究竟是不是衰退？从最新的消费信心、物价预期、零售增长、房产交易、信用卡违约来看，美国经济的增速肯定在迅速下滑，只是不知道现在是否已经进入到衰退。

ase="11px" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);border-color:initial;border-style:initial;border-width:0px;color:rgb(0, 0, 0);font-feature-settings:normal;font-kerning:auto;font-optical-sizing:auto;font-size:11px;font-stretch:normal;font-variant-alternates:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-position:normal;font-variation-settings:normal;letter-spacing:normal;line-height:normal;margin-bottom:0px;min-height:12px;text-align:left">
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ase="11px" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);border-color:initial;border-style:initial;border-width:0px;color:rgb(0, 0, 0);font-feature-settings:normal;font-kerning:auto;font-optical-sizing:auto;font-size:11px;font-stretch:normal;font-variant-alternates:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-position:normal;font-variation-settings:normal;letter-spacing:normal;line-height:normal;margin-bottom:0px;text-align:left">    近来华尔街大行纷纷下调ase="14px" style="font-feature-settings:normal;font-kerning:auto;font-optical-sizing:auto;font-stretch:normal;font-variant-alternates:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-position:normal;font-variation-settings:normal;line-height:normal">2025年美国经济增长预测，不过暂时未见负增长的预测。市场共识是经济增长开始低过周期平均水平，但是只要就业不出现坍塌式崩盘，增长不至于太差。如此判断的前提是特朗普不主动作死，坏的特朗普不出现。然而，他最近有点作。面对暴跌的股市，他声称根本不关心股价。面对民众针对削减开支的激烈抗议，他也只轻描淡写地说，短期会有一些痛苦。

ase="11px" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);border-color:initial;border-style:initial;border-width:0px;color:rgb(0, 0, 0);font-feature-settings:normal;font-kerning:auto;font-optical-sizing:auto;font-size:11px;font-stretch:normal;font-variant-alternates:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-position:normal;font-variation-settings:normal;letter-spacing:normal;line-height:normal;margin-bottom:0px;min-height:12px;text-align:left">
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ase="11px" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);border-color:initial;border-style:initial;border-width:0px;color:rgb(0, 0, 0);font-feature-settings:normal;font-kerning:auto;font-optical-sizing:auto;font-size:11px;font-stretch:normal;font-variant-alternates:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-position:normal;font-variation-settings:normal;letter-spacing:normal;line-height:normal;margin-bottom:0px;text-align:left">    笔者的解读是，特朗普打算趁着刚上任不久，先主动引导经济进入轻微衰退，将责任放到拜登政府身上。现在经济下滑，要比明年中期选举时候再下滑要好。同时以此压缩通货膨胀，给联储减息创造条件，并引导国债利率下行，减少发债成本。

ase="11px" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);border-color:initial;border-style:initial;border-width:0px;color:rgb(0, 0, 0);font-feature-settings:normal;font-kerning:auto;font-optical-sizing:auto;font-size:11px;font-stretch:normal;font-variant-alternates:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-position:normal;font-variation-settings:normal;letter-spacing:normal;line-height:normal;margin-bottom:0px;min-height:12px;text-align:left">
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ase="11px" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);border-color:initial;border-style:initial;border-width:0px;color:rgb(0, 0, 0);font-feature-settings:normal;font-kerning:auto;font-optical-sizing:auto;font-size:11px;font-stretch:normal;font-variant-alternates:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-position:normal;font-variation-settings:normal;letter-spacing:normal;line-height:normal;margin-bottom:0px;text-align:left">    笔者对美国经济的评估是，经济增长在下滑但暂未陷入衰退，物价估计有日子高于联储政策目标但也不至于大涨，非农就业和工资增长逐步放缓，消费软着陆，联储今年九月重启减息周期。目前阶段的衰退风险，很大程度上是特朗普政府主动催生的，既然可以主动放，就可以某一天主动收。美国的真正风险不在实体经济，而在金融市场突发事件可能触发的连锁反应，对此必须有所警惕。

ase="11px" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);border-color:initial;border-style:initial;border-width:0px;color:rgb(0, 0, 0);font-feature-settings:normal;font-kerning:auto;font-optical-sizing:auto;font-size:11px;font-stretch:normal;font-variant-alternates:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-position:normal;font-variation-settings:normal;letter-spacing:normal;line-height:normal;margin-bottom:0px;min-height:12px;text-align:left">
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ase="11px" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);border-color:initial;border-style:initial;border-width:0px;color:rgb(0, 0, 0);font-feature-settings:normal;font-kerning:auto;font-optical-sizing:auto;font-size:11px;font-stretch:normal;font-variant-alternates:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-position:normal;font-variation-settings:normal;letter-spacing:normal;line-height:normal;margin-bottom:0px;text-align:left">    即将上任的德国新总理墨兹，先后和社民党和绿党达成财政刺激政策的共识。把相当于ase="14px" style="font-feature-settings:normal;font-kerning:auto;font-optical-sizing:auto;font-stretch:normal;font-variant-alternates:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-position:normal;font-variation-settings:normal;line-height:normal">GDP1%的国防开支，从债务限制中豁免出来，不受预算限制。同时，设立ase="14px" style="font-feature-settings:normal;font-kerning:auto;font-optical-sizing:auto;font-stretch:normal;font-variant-alternates:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-position:normal;font-variation-settings:normal;line-height:normal">5000亿欧元的专项基金，未来十年投资在基础设施。墨兹是出了名的财政保守主义者，但在赢得选举并了解了德国经济现状后，他就变成了凯恩斯主义者，力主打破德国均衡财政的传统束缚，为德国经济ase="14px" style="font-feature-settings:normal;font-kerning:auto;font-optical-sizing:auto;font-stretch:normal;font-variant-alternates:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-position:normal;font-variation-settings:normal;line-height:normal">杀出一条生路。

ase="11px" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);border-color:initial;border-style:initial;border-width:0px;color:rgb(0, 0, 0);font-feature-settings:normal;font-kerning:auto;font-optical-sizing:auto;font-size:11px;font-stretch:normal;font-variant-alternates:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-position:normal;font-variation-settings:normal;letter-spacing:normal;line-height:normal;margin-bottom:0px;min-height:12px;text-align:left">
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ase="11px" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);border-color:initial;border-style:initial;border-width:0px;color:rgb(0, 0, 0);font-feature-settings:normal;font-kerning:auto;font-optical-sizing:auto;font-size:11px;font-stretch:normal;font-variant-alternates:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-position:normal;font-variation-settings:normal;letter-spacing:normal;line-height:normal;margin-bottom:0px;text-align:left">    他借用欧债危机时欧洲央行行长德拉吉的名言，ase="14px" style="font-feature-settings:normal;font-kerning:auto;font-optical-sizing:auto;font-stretch:normal;font-variant-alternates:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-position:normal;font-variation-settings:normal;line-height:normal">“whatever it takes”（不惜任何手段）也要达成目标。这是德国战后第二个历史性转折点，上一次发生在九十年代初的两德统一，国家财政因此遭遇了巨大挑战，不过也为德国经济注入了新的资源、新的人口和新的增长动力。不过，德国国债也因此被抛售，十年期债券收益率三月以来上跳了超过ase="14px" style="font-feature-settings:normal;font-kerning:auto;font-optical-sizing:auto;font-stretch:normal;font-variant-alternates:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-position:normal;font-variation-settings:normal;line-height:normal">50点。

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ase="11px" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);border-color:initial;border-style:initial;border-width:0px;color:rgb(0, 0, 0);font-feature-settings:normal;font-kerning:auto;font-optical-sizing:auto;font-size:11px;font-stretch:normal;font-variant-alternates:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-position:normal;font-variation-settings:normal;letter-spacing:normal;line-height:normal;margin-bottom:0px;text-align:left">    德国ase="14px" style="font-feature-settings:normal;font-kerning:auto;font-optical-sizing:auto;font-stretch:normal;font-variant-alternates:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-position:normal;font-variation-settings:normal;line-height:normal">GDP大约ase="14px" style="font-feature-settings:normal;font-kerning:auto;font-optical-sizing:auto;font-stretch:normal;font-variant-alternates:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-position:normal;font-variation-settings:normal;line-height:normal">4.5万亿欧元，每年千亿级的军工、基建投入，对于困顿中的德国经济，可谓久旱逢甘露，对增长的刺激作用呢也是不言而喻的。更重要的是，政府订单对萎缩中的重化工业，是一剂强心针。部分企业已经开始将汽车生产线改成装甲车线，把火车引擎生产改为坦克引擎生产。

ase="11px" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);border-color:initial;border-style:initial;border-width:0px;color:rgb(0, 0, 0);font-feature-settings:normal;font-kerning:auto;font-optical-sizing:auto;font-size:11px;font-stretch:normal;font-variant-alternates:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-position:normal;font-variation-settings:normal;letter-spacing:normal;line-height:normal;margin-bottom:0px;min-height:12px;text-align:left">
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ase="11px" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);border-color:initial;border-style:initial;border-width:0px;color:rgb(0, 0, 0);font-feature-settings:normal;font-kerning:auto;font-optical-sizing:auto;font-size:11px;font-stretch:normal;font-variant-alternates:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-position:normal;font-variation-settings:normal;letter-spacing:normal;line-height:normal;margin-bottom:0px;text-align:left">    目前德国的债务ase="14px" style="font-feature-settings:normal;font-kerning:auto;font-optical-sizing:auto;font-stretch:normal;font-variant-alternates:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-position:normal;font-variation-settings:normal;line-height:normal">GDP比率是ase="14px" style="font-feature-settings:normal;font-kerning:auto;font-optical-sizing:auto;font-stretch:normal;font-variant-alternates:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-position:normal;font-variation-settings:normal;line-height:normal">63%，在ase="14px" style="font-feature-settings:normal;font-kerning:auto;font-optical-sizing:auto;font-stretch:normal;font-variant-alternates:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-position:normal;font-variation-settings:normal;line-height:normal">G7国家中是最低的。经济学家测算，墨兹计划可能令德国的债务ase="14px" style="font-feature-settings:normal;font-kerning:auto;font-optical-sizing:auto;font-stretch:normal;font-variant-alternates:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-position:normal;font-variation-settings:normal;line-height:normal">GDP比率上升到ase="14px" style="font-feature-settings:normal;font-kerning:auto;font-optical-sizing:auto;font-stretch:normal;font-variant-alternates:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-position:normal;font-variation-settings:normal;line-height:normal">80-90%，仍然处在非常安全的区间，比起美国、日本和法国要健康许多。可以说德国战后传下来的财政理念和债务底子，为墨兹放手一搏提供了相当不错的基础。如果财政扩张得以持续，它将从ase="14px" style="font-feature-settings:normal;font-kerning:auto;font-optical-sizing:auto;font-stretch:normal;font-variant-alternates:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-position:normal;font-variation-settings:normal;line-height:normal">2026年起为德国每年提供ase="14px" style="font-feature-settings:normal;font-kerning:auto;font-optical-sizing:auto;font-stretch:normal;font-variant-alternates:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-position:normal;font-variation-settings:normal;line-height:normal">2个百分点的经济增长。

ase="11px" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);border-color:initial;border-style:initial;border-width:0px;color:rgb(0, 0, 0);font-feature-settings:normal;font-kerning:auto;font-optical-sizing:auto;font-size:11px;font-stretch:normal;font-variant-alternates:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-position:normal;font-variation-settings:normal;letter-spacing:normal;line-height:normal;margin-bottom:0px;min-height:12px;text-align:left">
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ase="11px" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);border-color:initial;border-style:initial;border-width:0px;color:rgb(0, 0, 0);font-feature-settings:normal;font-kerning:auto;font-optical-sizing:auto;font-size:11px;font-stretch:normal;font-variant-alternates:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-position:normal;font-variation-settings:normal;letter-spacing:normal;line-height:normal;margin-bottom:0px;text-align:left">    然而光靠财政刺激，未必能将德国带回到可持续的经济繁荣上。德国在移动互联网革命中无所事事，更缺席了人工智能浪潮。化工行业因为能源危机而凋零、出走，汽车公司就又受到中国电动车的挑战。德国引以为傲的中小企业受到成本和订单的双重挤压，而贸易保护主义对德国出口构成严重打击。

ase="11px" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);border-color:initial;border-style:initial;border-width:0px;color:rgb(0, 0, 0);font-feature-settings:normal;font-kerning:auto;font-optical-sizing:auto;font-size:11px;font-stretch:normal;font-variant-alternates:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-position:normal;font-variation-settings:normal;letter-spacing:normal;line-height:normal;margin-bottom:0px;min-height:12px;text-align:left">
ase="11px"/>

ase="11px" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);border-color:initial;border-style:initial;border-width:0px;color:rgb(0, 0, 0);font-feature-settings:normal;font-kerning:auto;font-optical-sizing:auto;font-size:11px;font-stretch:normal;font-variant-alternates:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-position:normal;font-variation-settings:normal;letter-spacing:normal;line-height:normal;margin-bottom:0px;text-align:left">ase="14px" style="font-feature-settings:normal;font-kerning:auto;font-optical-sizing:auto;font-stretch:normal;font-variant-alternates:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-position:normal;font-variation-settings:normal;line-height:normal">    以世界标准看，德国的金融业、服务业的竞争力并不强大，德国经济要败部复活，长远来看必须要重振产业，但是这些在墨兹的计划中只字未提。战后罕见的军事、基建扩张，只能给德国一个喘息的空间。扭转德国经济颓势，墨兹需要做更多，德国需要解决结构性困境。

ase="11px" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);border-color:initial;border-style:initial;border-width:0px;color:rgb(0, 0, 0);font-feature-settings:normal;font-kerning:auto;font-optical-sizing:auto;font-size:11px;font-stretch:normal;font-variant-alternates:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-position:normal;font-variation-settings:normal;letter-spacing:normal;line-height:normal;margin-bottom:0px;min-height:12px;text-align:left"> 

ase="11px" style="background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);border-color:initial;border-style:initial;border-width:0px;color:rgb(0, 0, 0);font-feature-settings:normal;font-kerning:auto;font-optical-sizing:auto;font-size:11px;font-stretch:normal;font-variant-alternates:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-position:normal;font-variation-settings:normal;letter-spacing:normal;line-height:normal;margin-bottom:0px;text-align:left">    本周是央行例会周，美联储、英格兰银行、日本银行和瑞士银行几乎同一时间开会，估计都不作出利率决定。鲍威尔和贝利在记者会上对经济前景的看法，可能是目前市场最关注之处。联储的点阵图可能显示决策者认为今年只有一次减息机会，任何比此更鹰派的表述都可能造成市场的不安。

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